The Great Horse Manure Crisis

Extrapolation falsely assumes bad circumstances will continue and mistakenly dismisses innovation and creativity of individuals to solve problems which is a key fundamental economic principle of Capitalism.  

For example, mankind in the U.S. and around the world faced a seemingly unsolvable problem around the year 1900.

As cities grew in population during the late 1800s, so did the demand for horses.  Horses were needed in the growing cities to pull horse drawn vehicles such as taxis, buses, and delivery wagons which was in addition to the citizens riding horseback.

Circa 1900 in the city of New York, it is estimated the horse population was 100,000.  On average, a single horse produces 15 to 35 pounds of manure daily.  

Observers conservatively estimate that 2.5 million pounds of manure was being produced daily in the city of New York.  Without providing details, this circumstance posed dangerously poor sanitation and presented major health problems for citizens.

Not only was this a menacing problem in the United States, it was occurring in the largest cities around the world.  

The global crisis caused “urban planners” to conduct meetings to figure out a solution to the sanitation Armageddon.  One writer captured the mood in 1894 in London estimating that in 50 years horse manure would be nine feet high along city streets in London.

The global problem at the time seemed “unsolvable and perilous” certain to end in disaster.

As seen throughout history, people find solutions when faced with problems.  

The global crisis vanished when the automobile was introduced and made available to public by Henry Ford in the U.S. and Gottlieb Daimler in Germany in the early 1900s.

We share something in common with our ancestors.  On any given day, we can find multiple reasons why our country and the world will end today.  

Extrapolating today’s circumstances into the future can cause you to make poor and costly financial mistakes.  If it is commonly accepted that a problem/trend cannot continue, then it will not.  The problem will be solved.

Capitalism is alive and well providing monetary incentives to people to solve problems and to improve one’s circumstances thereby improving the circumstances for other people around them.